Oil bets right before Trump’s Iran war news: up to $7 billion
Description
Fifteen minutes before President Trump announced he was extending the ceasefire with Iran, traders bet $430 million that oil prices would fall, ABC News reported.
In March and April, bets like that came again and again, just before news about the war, most of it from Trump. Reuters added them up: as much as $7 billion.
On March 23, about $580 million in oil bets changed hands in one minute, starting at 6:49 a.m. New York time, the Financial Times found. About 15 minutes later, Trump posted that the US and Iran were having “productive conversations.” Talk of peace means less danger to the world’s oil, so its price fell more than 10% that day.
Anyone who knew that post was coming could have bet on the drop. The timing alone doesn’t prove anyone knew. A White House spokesman said accusing administration officials of insider trading without evidence is “baseless and irresponsible.”
The agency that polices oil trading is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its chairman, Michael Selig, is Trump’s pick, and he sits alone on a commission built for five.
In October, Bloomberg reported that the agency’s analysts had referred the March 23 trades to its enforcement division for an insider trading investigation, and that a senior adviser to Selig told staff to withdraw the referral. The agency declined to comment.
In April, Selig said anyone who engages in insider trading in the markets his agency polices “will face the full force of the law.” Seven months after the March bets, no charges have been announced.
Transcript
Fifteen minutes before President Trump announced he was extending the ceasefire with Iran, traders bet more than $430 million that oil prices would fall, ABC News found. In March and April, traders made bets like that again and again, just before news about the war, most of it from President Trump. Reuters added up all the money bet on oil prices falling right before that news: as much as $7 billion. Regulators can trace who made those trades, but the names have never been made public.
On March 23, at 6:49 a.m., about $580 million in oil bets changed hands in one minute, the Financial Times found. Fifteen minutes later, Trump posted that the US and Iran were having “productive conversations.” Talk of peace means less danger to the world’s oil, so the price of oil dropped more than 10% that day.
If you knew that post was coming, you could bet on the drop. The timing alone doesn’t prove anyone knew. A White House spokesman said accusing administration officials of insider trading without evidence is “baseless and irresponsible.”
In October, Bloomberg reported that analysts at the agency that polices oil trading asked for an insider trading investigation. Bloomberg said an adviser to the agency’s chairman then told staff to drop the request. The chairman, Michael Selig, is Trump’s pick, and he sits alone on a five-seat commission. The agency declined to comment.
The bets came before the public heard the news. Seven months later, no charges have been announced.
Sources and credits
- ABC News via ABC7 New York, Justice Department probing $2.6 billion in oil trades related to the Iran war, May 7, 2026. abc7ny.com
- Reuters via Mining.com, oil price bets ahead of Iran war news totaled $7 billion, May 8, 2026. mining.com
- IBTimes UK, the Financial Times’ count of oil futures traded before Trump’s March 23 post, and the CFTC referral, Oct. 13, 2026. ibtimes.co.uk
- The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara, President Trump’s Truth Social posts of March 23, 2026. presidency.ucsb.edu
- US Energy Information Administration, Europe Brent spot price, daily (March 20 and March 23, 2026). eia.gov
- NPR, trades made before Trump delayed plans to attack Iran raise insider-trading concerns, March 26, 2026. npr.org
- The New Republic, citing Bloomberg, a Trump official tries to kill a report on perfectly timed oil trades, Oct. 13, 2026. newrepublic.com
- MS NOW, citing Bloomberg, on the CFTC’s insider-trading referral of the oil trades, Oct. 14, 2026. ms.now
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission, “Chairman & Commissioners,” read Nov. 5, 2026. cftc.gov
- The White House, nominations sent to the Senate, including Michael Selig for the CFTC, Oct. 30, 2025. whitehouse.gov
- ABC News, “DOJ probing $2.6 billion in oil trades related to Iran war, sources say,” May 7, 2026. abcnews.com
- Reuters via The Standard, “Traders place US$430 million bet on lower oil price before Trump ceasefire extension,” April 23, 2026. thestandard.com.hk
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance, “US probes suspicious oil trades made before Trump Iran pivots, source says,” April 15, 2026. finance.yahoo.com
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission, “Large Trader Reporting Program,” accessed Nov. 7, 2026. cftc.gov
Picture credits
- President Trump at a Cabinet meeting, May 27, 2026: frame from a White House video (public domain). Wikimedia Commons
- Oil tanks, Fujairah, UAE: “Oil tanks, Fujairah Port” by Jpbowen, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped.
- A Navy destroyer and a tanker on blockade patrol, April 26, 2026: U.S. Navy video via DVIDS (public domain). Wikimedia Commons
- CFTC headquarters: “CFTC headquarters, Lafayette Center” by Dclemens1971, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped.
- CFTC entrance sign: “CFTC entrance sign Washington DC 2026-03-15 08-48-01” by G. Edward Johnson, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and darkened.
- The White House: “The White House North Portico in Washington, D.C.” by Harrison Keely, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped.
- Justice Department: “Robert F. Kennedy Department of Justice Building” by APK, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped.
- Michael Selig and the commissioners page: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (public domain).
- President Trump’s March 23, 2026 post: The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara.
- Oil price chart: drawn by Letters of Junius from US Energy Information Administration data (public domain).
The appearance of U.S. Department of War (DoW) visual information does not imply or constitute DoW endorsement.